As many citizens prepare to vote in Turkey‘s local elections this Sunday, there is one issue that is of great concern to a vast majority of its inhabitants, and that many politicians have not properly addressed in this election campaign: the certainty that a major earthquake (a “Big One”, with an intensity of over 7.0) will hit Istanbul in the near future – experts say it will probably be before the middle of this century – and the fact that the Turkish metropolis, with 16 million inhabitants, is not prepared to deal with an earthquake of that magnitude.
A recent macro survey of Istanbul residents in the run-up to the 31 March elections, which interviewed 408,079 Istanbul residents of all ages, genders and backgrounds, confirms that 83.7% of Istanbul residents believe that authorities are not prepared for a major earthquake in the city, even though the majority of them say they live in fear of a major earthquake shaking the city at any time. In this situation, many Istanbulites choose as their only solution to take the necessary measures and preparations themselves, according to their means.
When asked whether they are making any preparations for the imminence of a major earthquake in Istanbul, 38.6% of Istanbulites surveyed said they had participated in earthquake drills, while 27.2% said they had emergency backpacks ready, and 45.1% said they had informed themselves about safe areas to evacuate in the event of an earthquake.
Even so, the survey – conducted between 10 and 25 March – reveals that the vast majority of Istanbul’s citizens feel that the authorities have not prepared the city for the imminence of a major earthquake, despite the fact that in the election campaign many candidates have talked about big urban transformation projects for the coming years – always surrounded by the shadow of urban speculation – but forget the more immediate preparations for those living in housing that is often dubious in terms of earthquake resistance.
“Every 500 years there is a major earthquake, and it has not happened yet”
It is estimated that 70% of Istanbul’s buildings are not prepared to withstand a major earthquake, and of these, more than 90,000 buildings should be demolished immediately because of the serious risk of collapse in the event of an earthquake. Speaking to A Haber, geological expert Professor Hüseyin Öztürk warned that the highest population density in Istanbul accumulates in the coastal areas, especially on the European side of Istanbul, which “is the area closest to the fault” that will generate the Big One.
“Every 500 years there is a very intense earthquake in this region, and it hasn’t happened, so there will be one,” said Öztürk, who noted that the biggest risk area in the event of a big earthquake in Istanbul is the strip of land between Zeytinburnu and Büyükçekmece, where 5 million people live in houses built “on very bad soil” that dissolves with water. “While you sleep on top of it, the ground beneath you is emptying out,” the professor said, adding that in the event of a tsunami, “the damage here will be greater”. By contrast, coastal areas in Asia such as Üsküdar or the Princes’ Islands “are built on solid ground, because it’s hard rock”, he said, so the risk here will be lower despite its proximity to the fault.
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Edited and reviewed by:
Pablo Gómez is a specialist in Turkey and has been editor-in-chief of Hispanatolia since 2011. He has been analysing current affairs and geopolitics in Turkey and the surrounding region since 2006.
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