Inflation in Turkey rose to 32.37% last April compared with the same month the previous year, up by 1.5 percentage points from the 30.87% rate recorded in March, thereby exceeding the main economists’ forecasts, in what has been interpreted as a consequence of the conflict in the Middle East.
According to official data published on Monday by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), on a monthly basis the CPI rose by 4.18%, accelerating from the 1.9% recorded in March, driven mainly by rising costs for housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, according to the report presented by the statistical agency. Compared with December 2025, prices in Turkey have risen by 14.64%.
The 32.37% rise seen in April exceeded analysts’ forecasts. A poll by the Turkish news agency Anatolia had predicted annual inflation of 31.11% and monthly inflation of 3.19%; meanwhile, economists polled by Reuters put the monthly forecast at 3.28% and the annual at 31.25%, against a backdrop marked by rising fuel costs due to the war in Iran and expectations of a deflation slower than anticipated.
Housing, transport and food lead the price rises
In annual terms, the food and non-alcoholic beverages group, one of the heaviest-weighted in the index, recorded a year-on-year increase of 34.55%, contributing 8.72 percentage points to the annual inflation rate. Meanwhile, transport rose by 35.06% over the same period, contributing 5.66 points, whilst housing, water, electricity, gas and fuels led the rises among the main categories, with an increase of 46.6% and a contribution of 6.30 points.
In terms of monthly inflation, food and non-alcoholic beverages rose by 3.7% in April, contributing 0.95 points to the index; transport rose by 4.29% month-on-month – contributing 0.73 percentage points – whilst housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels rose by 7.99%, contributing 0.90 percentage points.
These are the first official figures to reflect the impact of the war in Iran on the Turkish economy and inflation, after March’s CPI figures came in below expectations. The Turkish government maintains that the conflict in Iran will influence price trends, although it will not alter the main trend towards disinflation. All eyes are now on the Turkish Central Bank, whose Monetary Policy Committee is scheduled to meet on 11 June: at its last meeting, the bank decided to keep the benchmark interest rate in Turkey at 37%.
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Edited and reviewed by:
Pablo Gómez is a specialist in Turkey and has been editor-in-chief of Hispanatolia since 2011. He has been analysing current affairs and geopolitics in Turkey and the surrounding region since 2006.
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