The Turkish Central Bank has raised its inflation forecast for the end of 2024, which the Turkish financial institution now expects to stand at 38%, compared with its previous estimates, which indicated that prices would rise by 36% by the end of this year.
For 2025 and 2026, the Turkish Central Bank of the Republic (TCMB) maintains the previous estimate of 14% and 9% inflation respectively, with a stabilisation forecast of around 5% in the medium term. The new governor, Fatih Karahan, promised on Thursday “not to allow a permanent deterioration in the inflation outlook” and “to maintain our tight monetary policy until inflation falls”, despite the fact that the latest data on the rise of the CPI in Turkey are not flattering – with a rise in March that is close to 70% – nor are the forecasts of international analysts.
The governor of the Turkish Central Bank, however, recalled today while presenting the latest inflation report that core inflation has come down, although he acknowledged at the same time that it also remains above the levels the TCMB had projected in its first report of the year. “As the disinflation process begins in June, we will continue to do whatever it takes to bring inflation down in line with our objectives,” Karahan said.
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Pablo Gómez is a specialist in Turkey and has been editor-in-chief of Hispanatolia since 2011. He has been analysing current affairs and geopolitics in Turkey and the surrounding region since 2006.
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