Turkey’s economy would have ended 2025 with higher-than-expected growth, the World Bank announced in its latest report, which also upgraded its GDP growth forecasts for the Eurasian country for 2026 and 2027.
In the January edition of its Global Economic Prospects report, the World Bank revised up global economic growth for this year from 2.4% to 2.6% and for 2027 from 2.6% to 2.7%. The document stresses that the global economy has shown greater resilience than expected despite trade and tariff tensions and economic policy uncertainty, Turkish daily Hürriyet reported.
The report expects global growth to remain relatively stable over the next two years, with a projected 2.7% in 2025, a slight drop to 2.6% in 2026 and a rebound to 2.7% in 2027. In its projections made last June, the World Bank estimated world economic growth at 2.4% in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027.
The upward revision is largely explained by the improved performance of the United States, responsible for about two-thirds of the increase in the forecast for this year. Even so, the agency warns that, if these figures are confirmed, the 2020s will be the weakest decade for global growth since the 1960s. Global inflation is expected to fall to 2.6% in 2026, driven by weaker labour markets and lower energy prices.
Better outlook for the US, China and the Eurozone
By region, the growth forecast for the US economy rises from 1.6% to 2.2% this year, while for next year it remains at 1.9%. In the euro area, the estimate is upgraded from 0.8% to 0.9% for 2026 and from 1% to 1.2% for 2027. China’s figures are also revised upwards, with 4.4% this year and 4.2% next year: the previous estimate was 4% in 2026 and 3.9% in 2027.
In the case of Turkey, the World Bank forecasts growth of 3.7% this year and 4.4% next year. In its June report, the institution estimated Turkish GDP growth at 3.6% in 2026 and 4.2% in 2027.
The report stresses that the improvement in Turkey’s economic activity is supported by solid domestic demand, especially investment in construction, as well as a looser monetary policy throughout the year. The World Bank also anticipates growth in private consumption thanks to rising real wages in a context of gradual disinflation, a larger current account deficit and a reduction in the fiscal deficit, linked to lower spending on reconstruction after the 2023 earthquakes.
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Edited and reviewed by:
Pablo Gómez is a specialist in Turkey and has been editor-in-chief of Hispanatolia since 2011. He has been analysing current affairs and geopolitics in Turkey and the surrounding region since 2006.
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