After more than thirteen years of conflict, the World Bank estimates that post-war reconstruction in Syria could reach $216 billion, according to a report released on 21 October. The study, entitled ‘Syria Physical Damage and Reconstruction Assessment 2011-2024’, analyses material losses and the state of infrastructure and buildings in Syria over the period 2011 to 2024.
According to the report, the conflict has destroyed nearly a third of the pre-war gross capital stock, with direct physical damage valued at $108 billion. Infrastructure is the most affected, accounting for 48% of the total damage, followed by residential and non-residential buildings.
The total cost of damaged physical assets ranges from $140bn to $345bn, with the “best conservative estimate” being $216bn: $75bn for housing, $59bn for non-residential buildings and $82bn for infrastructure. The provinces of Aleppo and around Damascus, rebel strongholds during the early years of the conflict and subject to intense bombardment during the civil war, are the most devastated areas.
The World Bank estimates that the cost of reconstruction will be ten times higher than Syria’s projected GDP in 2024. “The challenges ahead are immense, but the World Bank stands ready to work alongside the Syrian people and the international community to support recovery and reconstruction,” said Jean-Christophe Carret, director of the agency’s Middle East Division.
Despite the lifting of sanctions, reconstruction is indeed one of the main challenges facing the new Syrian authorities led by Ahmed Al-Sharaa following the fall of the Assad dictatorship in early December 2024.
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Pablo Gómez is a specialist in Turkey and has been editor-in-chief of Hispanatolia since 2011. He has been analysing current affairs and geopolitics in Turkey and the surrounding region since 2006.
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