Inflation in Turkey stood at 29.73% year-on-year in September, below the 30.3% forecast by the markets, according to official data published on 5 October by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK). This is the first time in almost five years that inflation has fallen below 30%, something that had not happened since November 2021.
According to the report presented today by TÜİK, the prices of food and non-alcoholic drinks rose by 27.62% year-on-year, whilst transport costs rose by 35.1% and housing prices by 39.99%. These three groups contributed 6.73, 5.96 and 4.84 percentage points, respectively, to annual inflation.
On a monthly basis, prices for food and non-alcoholic drinks, one of the main components of the consumer price index (CPI), fell by 0.2% compared with August. Conversely, transport prices rose by 2.79%, whilst the costs of housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels rose by 2.71%. Transport contributed 0.49 percentage points to monthly inflation and housing added 0.33 points. However, food reduced the monthly figure by 0.05 percentage points.
The government expects inflation to continue falling
Turkey’s Finance Minister, Mehmet Şimşek, noted in a post on social media that annual inflation had fallen below 30% for the first time in 57 months, since November 2021. “Disinflation is spreading across all sectors, except for transport. In September, food inflation fell by 8.4 percentage points compared with the same period last year, reaching an annual rate of 27.6%,” he said.
“To limit the impact of the recent rise in oil prices on inflation, we are gradually phasing out the sliding-scale price adjustment mechanism (eşel mobil) for petrol, just as we did with diesel. Our Central Bank estimates that, had it not been for the war (with Iran), inflation would have been 7 percentage points lower this year,” added Şimşek.
The minister emphasised that the government of Turkey is implementing policies aimed at increasing the supply of housing and food. “By 2027, a reduction in the inertia of inflation in the services sector — particularly in rents and education — and a decrease in the impact of rising commodity prices will contribute to a fall in inflation,” the minister stated.
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Edited and reviewed by:
Pablo Gómez is a specialist in Turkey and has been editor-in-chief of Hispanatolia since 2011. He has been analysing current affairs and geopolitics in Turkey and the surrounding region since 2006.
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