The Turkish central bank raised on Friday its inflation forecast for this year, as well as for 2026 and 2026, in light of the latest data on the rise in Turkey’s CPI, which has revealed a continued disinflation process but at a slower pace than expected by economists.
According to Turkish economic media, the governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB), Fatih Karahan, has reportedly raised the inflation projection for the end of this year to 44%, from the previous estimate of 38%.
The announcement came during the presentation of this year’s fourth and final inflation report, which states that prices are expected to grow by 21% in Turkey in 2025 – previously the estimate for next year was around 14% – and by 12% in 2026, compared to the previous forecast of 9%.
For Professor Ali Hakan Kara, a banking and finance expert at Ankara Bilkent University and former chief economist at the Turkish Central Bank, ‘the TCMB has set a more realistic but equally ambitious target by lowering the upper limit of the 2025 forecast to 26%. This is the right thing to do, in terms of managing inflation expectations.’
For her part, Turkish economist Burcu Aydın noted that ‘unless fiscal, administrative, institutional and structural policies work together, we will continue to see revisions,’ insisting that ‘monetary policy (of the Central Bank) alone is not enough to reduce inflation.’
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Edited and reviewed by:
Pablo Gómez is a specialist in Turkey and has been editor-in-chief of Hispanatolia since 2011. He has been analysing current affairs and geopolitics in Turkey and the surrounding region since 2006.
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