The annual CPI in Turkey moderated slightly during last October to 48.6%, continuing the downward trend in inflation although at a slower pace than expected, leading experts to fear that the expected interest rate cut planned by the Turkish Central Bank will not take place until at least 2025.
Data released on Monday by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) show that the Consumer Price Index rose by 48.58% in October compared to the same month last year, while the rise was 2.88% compared to the previous month, September, when the price increase was 49.38%.
The main price rises compared to last year were recorded in education (93.66%) and housing (89.39%), while the smallest rises were in transport (26.14%) and clothing and footwear (31.37%).
Although the data for inflation is positive, economists expected prices to fall further in October, with experts forecasting an average of around 48.2% for October’s CPI.
This CPI data is likely to increase pressure on the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB), which has held interest rates at 50% since last March. Most analysts had expected the central bank to announce a rate cut in December or January at the latest; but the slow pace of disinflation is leading many to believe that such a move will not occur until mid to late Q1 2025.
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Edited and reviewed by:
Pablo Gómez is a specialist in Turkey and has been editor-in-chief of Hispanatolia since 2011. He has been analysing current affairs and geopolitics in Turkey and the surrounding region since 2006.
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