The international credit agency Fitch Ratings raised its growth forecast for the Turkish economy for 2025 to 3.5%, 0.6 percentage points higher than its previous estimate of 2.9%, after Turkey’s GDP grew by 4.8% in the second quarter, almost one point above economists’ expectations.
As reported by various Turkish media, in its latest Global Economic Outlook report, Fitch further estimates that the Turkish economy will grow at 3.5% in 2026 and accelerate to 4.2% in 2027.
The agency highlights that CPI in Turkey continues to maintain a disinflationary trend, forecasting inflation to fall to 28% by the end of 2025 and to stand at 21% in 2026 and 19% in 2027. The credit agency also points out in its report that the Turkish Central Bank will reduce its interest rates by 800 basis points over the remainder of 2025, to leave its benchmark interest rate at 35% by the end of this year (it currently stands at 43%).
Despite this upward revision for the economy of Turkey and other countries, Fitch announces in its latest report growth forecasts for the global economy that are lower than last year; it calculates that China‘s GDP will grow at 4.7% (the previous forecast was 4.2%), while the Eurozone‘s economy will grow from 0.8% to 1.1% in 2025, and that of the United States will increase slightly from 1.5% to 1.6%.
By 2026, Fitch Ratings expects the world economy to grow by 2.3%, 0.1 points more than the previous report’s forecast. The outlook announced by the credit agency for the Turkish economy exceeds those of the Turkish government itself, which has set a target of 3.3% growth in 2025, 3.8% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027, according to the Medium-Term Economic Programme for 2026-2028, presented just two days ago.
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Edited and reviewed by:
Pablo Gómez is a specialist in Turkey and has been editor-in-chief of Hispanatolia since 2011. He has been analysing current affairs and geopolitics in Turkey and the surrounding region since 2006.
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