The war between the US, Israel and Iran, which has subsequently spread across the Middle East, has led to a slowdown in tourist bookings in Türkiye, and although no serious negative effects on tourism in Turkey have been detected so far, the prospect of prolonged conflict and rising oil prices could put pressure on the Turkish tourism sector, especially due to increased transport costs.
The US-Israeli attacks on Iran on 28 February, followed by Iranian retaliatory missile strikes and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz that triggered tension across the region, have entered their seventh day. Iran’s ballistic missile and drone attacks against several countries in the Gulf region are leading to the closure of airspace and numerous flight suspensions: a situation that is hampering the arrival of visitors to Turkey and other neighbouring countries, as well as fueling many people’s fear of travelling to the region at this time.
Speaking to Turkish media, Firuz Bağlıkaya, president of the Turkish Travel Agencies Association (TÜRSAB), said that the conflict has slowed down booking requests, but added that the situation for tourism in Turkey cannot yet be described as very negative: “In periods like this it is quite normal to see an initial slowdown in booking requests due to the anxiety generated by the war. However, we cannot say that the situation is very negative at the moment… We can say that, in general, the demand for travel to Turkey during the summer season is going well,” he said.
Bağlıkaya explained that due to the suspension of civil aviation operations in the Middle East because of the conflict, the flow of tourists from countries in the region to Türkiye has been disrupted. However, he stressed that there are no problems for visitors coming from Europe and other parts of the world.
Rising oil prices, the big threat to the tourism sector
The head of TÜRSAB also added that demand for the summer season remains strong for now, although he warned of possible negative effects if the conflict continues; in this regard, he stressed that one of the biggest risks for tourism is the increase in oil prices, as a prolonged increase in crude oil would raise transport costs and put a strong pressure on the sector.
For Bağlıkaya, however, it is still too early to assess how the situation will affect the tourism targets set for this year. “There are many parameters that will determine this. We face many unknowns such as whether the war will continue, what direction oil prices will take, how the global economy will be affected by this process and to what extent consumer confidence will change around the world,” he said. “Overall, the prolongation of the war can be expected to have a negative impact on the achievement of the growth targets set for both world tourism and Turkish tourism,” he added.
The TÜRSAB president stressed that, if the conflict is prolonged, recovering incentives and support measures applied in previous crises – such as aviation fuel subsidies or cruise ship subsidies, as was done especially during the COVID pandemic confinements – could be an important step to ensure the continuity of tourism sector activity and tourist arrivals in Turkey.
Tourism is a key sector in Turkey’s economy, which is targeting $68 billion in tourism revenues by 2026. Last year, tourism revenues exceeded $65 billion and almost 53 million foreign tourists visited the country. In this regard, it is worth noting that Iran was the fourth largest source market for tourists to Turkey in 2025, with more than 3 million visitors, just behind Russia, Germany and the UK.
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Edited and reviewed by:
Pablo Gómez is a specialist in Turkey and has been editor-in-chief of Hispanatolia since 2011. He has been analysing current affairs and geopolitics in Turkey and the surrounding region since 2006.
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