Turkish government revised on Thursday its economy growth and inflation forecasts for 2024 and also for the coming years, anticipating a lower-than-expected economic performance due to measures taken to combat rising prices.
Turkish media reported that, during the presentation in Ankara of the revised medium-term economic programme targets, Turkish Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz explained that, after the Turkish economy (according to the latest revision) grew at 5.1% in 2023, and ‘due to geopolitical risks in the region, we have revised the growth forecast for this year to 3.5% from the 4% we announced last year’.
Yılmaz also announced that for 2025 and 2026 the Turkish executive expects national GDP to grow at 4% and 4.5%, respectively, which is also a downward revision from the previous estimates of 4.5% for 2025 and 5% for 2026.
With regard to the disinflation process that began in June, during the presentation of the details of the economic programme for the next three years the Turkish vice-president assured that the forecast from Ankara is that the fall in prices ‘will continue in September and beyond’, after the CPI fell to 52% in August.
The new economic programme unveiled today also revises inflation forecasts for the end of the year, which the Turkish government now calculates will end 2024 at 41.5%, while in 2025 it will fall to 17.5% and in 2026 it will stand at 9.7%. By 2027, the CPI in Turkey is estimated to be at 7%. Yılmaz stressed precisely that one of the objectives of the economic programme for the coming years is to gradually bring inflation down to below 10%, as well as to promote growth, investment, employment, production and exports, and an equitable distribution of wealth among all segments of society.
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Pablo Gómez is a specialist in Turkey and has been editor-in-chief of Hispanatolia since 2011. He has been analysing current affairs and geopolitics in Turkey and the surrounding region since 2006.
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