Amid a climate of simmering diplomatic mistrust between Athens and Ankara, Greece’s Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis insists that there is no serious risk of military escalation or war with Turkey despite growing tensions over maritime claims in the Aegean Sea. These statements come on the eve of an expected bilateral meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on a planned trip to Türkiye on 11 February, and mark an attempt to defuse tensions in the face of Greek firm position on its maritime sovereignty and jurisdiction in the waters of the Eastern Mediterranean.
Mitsotakis, asked in an interview published yesterday by Foreign Policy, said that although there are deep differences over the delimitation of territorial waters and economic zones between the two countries, he does not believe that these disagreements will lead to armed conflict between Turkey and Greece, stressing that the situation is much better than it was five years ago: “We are both experienced leaders“, he said referring to Erdoğan, despite insisting that he will travel to Ankara with “clear positions” on the maritime territorial dispute and stressing that the Greek armed forces are stronger than they were 6 years ago for a possible escalation of war.
At the centre of the debate is Greece’s intention to extend its territorial waters in the Aegean from 6 to 12 nautical miles, which Athens believes is recognised under maritime law but which Ankara categorically rejects on the grounds that it would limit the extent of Turkish territorial waters. The Turkish government has effectively dismissed such intentions as a violation of its rights and international law, and insisted that a solution to the issue can only emerge from “mutual dialogue and good faith”.
This exchange of warnings and diplomatic statements comes against a backdrop of tensions between Greece and Turkey, which, while their relations have improved considerably in recent years, still have long-standing and bitter disputes, especially over sovereignty in the Aegean Sea – which separates the two countries – and the delimitation of the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).
Turkey warns of a ‘casus belli’ if Greece expands in the Aegean
So far, Greece has already extended its territorial waters in the Ionian Sea from 6 to 12 nautical miles and has signed a maritime delimitation agreement with Egypt in the Eastern Mediterranean; however, Athens has so far avoided taking similar steps in the Aegean due to opposition from Turkey, whose parliament declared in 1995 that any unilateral extension beyond 6 nautical miles in the Aegean would constitute a casus belli or grounds for war with Greece.
Analysts believe that although both countries are members of international institutions and alliances such as NATO, the absence of effective dispute resolution mechanisms has so far perpetuated bilateral tensions. In recent remarks to Greek broadcaster Skai TV, Mitsotakis argued that resolving the Aegean dispute could not only end historical tensions between Greece and Turkey, but even positively affect processes such as Turkey’s EU accession, although the Greek prime minister also acknowledged that he had used precisely his influence in the European bloc to exert pressure on the EU against Turkey.
The Greek prime minister also referred to a recent incident in the Aegean off the island of Chios in which a boat loaded with migrants and refugees allegedly collided with a Greek coastguard vessel, causing 15 deaths. “These boats should never have set sail from Turkey’s shores,” Mitsotakis said, calling for greater cooperation with Turkish authorities to avoid further loss of life.
While the official version of the incident claims that the boat in which the migrants were crossing the Aegean Sea collided with the Greek patrol, other reports point to dangerous manoeuvres and even shooting by the Greek coastguards, who have previously been involved in accusations of illegal practices and attempts to sink boats at sea.
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Edited and reviewed by:
Pablo Gómez is a specialist in Turkey and has been editor-in-chief of Hispanatolia since 2011. He has been analysing current affairs and geopolitics in Turkey and the surrounding region since 2006.
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