The detention of Ekrem İmamoğlu, metropolitan mayor of Istanbul since 2019 for the main opposition party in Turkey, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), has raised numerous questions about his future just a few days before his party was almost certain to elect him as the official candidate for the country’s next presidential elections, in which he could face Erdoğan.
On 23 March, the CHP will held primary elections to choose its candidate for the next presidential elections, in which İmamoğlu is running as the only candidate, so everything points to the fact that he would be elected unopposed, with the backing of 116 CHP MPs. However, the University of Istanbul surprised everyone yesterday with the announcement that it was cancelling the university degree that the mayor of Istanbul obtained in 1995 from the Faculty of Business Administration: a measure that is a major blow to his political aspirations, since the Constitution of the Republic of Turkey requires that a presidential candidate must have at least a university degree, which İmamoğlu currently lacks – at least officially.
With only a few days to go before the CHP primaries, İmamoğlu could lose the support necessary to be the party’s official candidate, especially when there are already voices within the main opposition party such as that of the influential mayor of Ankara, Mansur Yavas, whom many consider an even better candidate, who have criticised these primary elections for being held too early: the next presidential elections will be held in 2028, although the CHP leadership, led by its secretary general Özgür Özel, insists on its strategy of forcing an early election, perhaps in 2026.
Initially, it was thought that the CHP might decide anyway to elect on 23 March the current mayor of Istanbul as its candidate – surely with less consensus – in the expectation that İmamoğlu will appeal to the courts against the decision taken by the University of Istanbul; but this is undoubtedly a very long and uncertain legal process – as several media outlets point out, there is no precedent for a similar decision by a Turkish university – which would thwart the CHP’s strategy of seeking an early presidential election. Although İmamoğlu’s lawyers argue that Istanbul University does not have the power to make such a decision, and even accuse the prosecutor’s office of putting pressure on the university, it will not be easy to prove this and they may even have to end up appealing to the Strasbourg Court.
Another issue that remains pending after the annulment of his university degree is what happens with his compulsory military service in Turkey, which the current metropolitan mayor completed on a reduced basis by taking advantage of his studies and paying a sum of money, according to legislation. With the annulment of his university degree, numerous media outlets in Turkey are wondering whether İmamoğlu – 53 years old – will be forced to complete military service, something for which there is already a precedent with former minister Bahattin Şeker, whose seat in parliament was revoked in 1999 after he was accused of fraud. However, for the moment experts do not agree to whether in this case the Istanbul mayor would be obliged to complete the military service he still has pending to do in the army.
Internal struggles in the main opposition party
More serious, in any case, is the situation facing İmamoğlu after his arrest early today on charges that include fraud, extortion and dealings with members of the terrorist group PKK. The seriousness of the charges – of which he has pleaded not guilty – and the abundant evidence presented by the prosecution will probably keep him in custody for at least the next four days, complicating his presence at the primary elections that his party is holding on Sunday; he could be released on Saturday under judicial supervision in time to be elected… Although with too many uncertainties hanging over his political future.
Although the CHP is likely to maintain its support for İmamoğlu, the withdrawal of his university degree and the possibility that he will end up being sentenced to prison after his arrest today could lead many in the party to look for alternative candidates to face Erdoğan in the presidential elections, such as Mansur Yavaş: less charismatic than İmamoğlu, the polls are nevertheless more favourable to him as a candidate for the Presidency of Turkey, and above all he does not have the problems of the mayor of Istanbul before the courts, with several trials pending and against whom a sentence of 2 years and 7 months in prison for insulting the Central Electoral Board has been confirmed, as explained by the Turkish press.
Yavaş did not want to be a candidate in the primaries, which he openly criticised as coming too soon and arguing that the vote for the ideal candidate should be broader, outside the CHP circle: perhaps with this in mind, he is considering his chances of beating İmamoğlu himself, who has greater support from the party leadership than Yavaş. Therefore, the ‘setback’ suffered in the last 24 hours by the mayor of Istanbul could be the opportunity that his main rival needs.
It should also be noted that much of the evidence and proof – including the use of black money for bribes and extortion – presented by the prosecution to order İmamoğlu’s arrest this morning, was provided by members of the CHP, possibly opposed to the current mayor of Istanbul.
Will İmamoğlu end up in prison?
In any case, and following the latest developments, the possibility that İmamoğlu will be released in four days’ time is now quite remote, according to legal experts. It is still too early to say what exactly the charges are against the mayor of Istanbul – pending the completion of his interrogation and the initial proceedings before the prosecutor’s office – but experts consulted by Hispanatolia believe that the prison sentence that the prosecutor will request will not be less than 15 years. Therefore, if the seriousness of the charges is confirmed, it is likely that after four days the judge will order not his release… But his admission to preventive detention pending trial.
It will be a long process, probably involving several appeals, and what is more important and immediate for his political future is that as long as he is not acquitted of all charges, Ekrem İmamoğlu will not be able to return to office as mayor of Istanbul. While the long legal process against him following his detention and probable arrest is concluded, there are two possibilities: either the municipal assembly – dominated by the CHP – elects a new mayor, or the Turkish government assigns a substitute. We will know the judge’s decision in four days’ time, but it is very likely that İmamoğlu will end up arrested and entering prison, and therefore losing the mayoralty of Istanbul.
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As a history lover, Pablo Gómez was captivated by Turkey from the first day he visited it in 2006: he got married there, has a house there… and has since become an expert on Turkey’s current affairs. With a long experience in media, he has been at the helm of hispanatolia.com since 2011.
